Win Rate
Beginners obsess over win rate because it feels like a measure of skill. Pros track it but treat it as one input to expectancy. The most profitable systems often have win rates between 35% and 55% — high-win-rate systems usually have small wins and occasional disastrous losses (mean reversion gone wrong, scalping that misses one big move).
Win rate degradation is a leading indicator of strategy decay. A playbook that ran 55% for two months and drops to 42% over the next two weeks may be telling you the market regime has changed. PerpLog surfaces this as a behavioral alert.
Win rate is also psychologically important: trading a 30% win rate system requires accepting frequent losses. Most traders cannot sustain that even when expectancy is strongly positive — they abandon the system during normal losing streaks. Knowing your psychological tolerance for losing trades matters as much as the math.
Related reading
- Kelly Criterion for Crypto Trading: A Practical Approach — Blog
- Why Every Trader Needs a Trading Journal (And How to Keep One) — Blog
Browse all terms in the trading glossary.